MLB Team Tiers with a World Series Prediction

       

MLB Team Tiers with a World Series Prediction

By: Carson Hull

September is coming, and playoff positions are rounding into shape. There are plenty of teams with October ambitions, but those ambitions vary depending on the team. In this article, I’ve included every team that could potentially make a run at the World Series. Each team will be in three tiers depending on how confident I feel in that team potentially making and winning a championship. 

Tier 1: The “Ya, that checks out” tier: Astros, Dodgers, Braves, Mets, and Yankees

These are the cream of the crop. Each of these teams I can confidently say I would not be surprised if they won the 2022 World Series. The Houston Astros might be the most complete team in this tier. They have an elite bullpen, ace(Verlander), starting staff, alpha hitter(Yordan) and lineup. This team can beat you in so many ways. Same with the Mets. They have power coming from Alonso, Lindor, Vogelbach and Marte, plus guys that can run up the pitch count and put the bat on the ball(Nimmo, McNeil, and sometimes Canha). Their staff is incredible with great seasons coming from the back end of the rotation in the form of Chris Bassitt and Cookie Carasco. How about the front end? Well that features two of the best pitchers in baseball. If you had a draft of starters you would want for a Game 7, deGrom and Scherzer would both be in the top 3 along with Verlander(hint hint, nudge nudge). The last piece as to what makes the Mets so great: they have the best closer in baseball in Edwin Diaz. 

The Dodgers and Yankees have more flaws in my opinion, but both bolster so much elite level talent that it might not matter. The Dodgers are the hottest, most dominant team in baseball right now, but also feature some red flags that might rear their head in the postseason. Those red flags consist of a very solid, nothing too special rotation when you rule out Buehler and Kershaw, a bottom half of the lineup that features three very prominent players(Gallo, Bellinger, and Muncy) who consistently flirt with the Mendoza Line, Craig Kimbrel being their closer, and Dave Roberts being their manager. But all of those red flags might not matter when you have three of the best players in the world in Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman all hitting back to back to back in your lineup. If just one of the aforementioned Mendoza Line flirters gets hot, it could get really scary. Plus, along with the Astros, they by far have the most postseason pedigree of anyone with one title, three pennants, and another NLCS appearance since 2017. 

The Yankees are very similar. They were the strongest team in baseball in the first half, but since the trade deadline have really struggled. Their red flags consist of a home run reliant lineup, sometimes shaky back end of the staff, inconsistent bullpen, and Aaron Boone being their manager. However, they have a man by the name of Aaron Judge, who with the all time type of season he is having, could single handedly make everyone forget about those red flags and dominate on the way to a title run. When this team is hot, they are a scary buzzsaw of a lineup that will have the best home field advantage in the playoffs to go along with Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and one of the most underrated catchers in Jose Trevino. 

Lastly, we have the Braves who just won the World Series last year and return a similar team with fresh new pieces in Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Vaughn Grissom, and Matt Olson. You most definitely can bet on the defending champs being a contender in the postseason not just this year, but for years to come with a core of young players that no other team can match with Harris II, Strider, Fried, Acuna, Olson, Albies, Swanson, Grissom and Riley all age 28 and younger. Phew. 

Tier 2: The “Definitely tempted to throw down some cash on a Pennant future” teams: Phillies, Guardians, Blue Jays, Padres, Cardinals and Orioles

These are teams that I would not be surprised if they made a run to the World Series, but it would probably take an injury or two from key players in the “Ya, that checks out” tier. This tier could be split up into two sub-tiers as well, with the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Padres being the “sexy” teams while the Cardinals, Orioles, and Guardians are the “boring, not as sexy” teams. 

The Phillies have now entered the chat. Since Harper’s injury, this team has found new life. This is attributed to good pitching from their new additions in David Robertson and Noah Syndergaard, as well as hot stretches from Realmuto, Hoskins, and Bohm. They have a good staff led by Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and they have a powerful lineup that has a guy in Bryce Harper with the kind of talent to lead them to the promised land.

The Blue Jays have a decent staff and bullpen to go along with a lot of inexperience. However, this team is the Memphis Grizzlies of baseball in the sense that they have the kind of fire power that when on, makes you question if there is possibly anything you can do to stop these young guys. They have THAT much talent. Even though they are probably still a year or two away as well as another quality starter away from being in the first tier, their talent is so good that you have to take them seriously. 

Same with the Padres. If Tatis was in this lineup, they would easily be in the top tier. But that might not even matter if we get monster postseason runs from Machado and Soto. They have the blue chippers to do it, but I do not trust the rest of their lineup and I have no idea what I’m getting from anyone on that starting staff besides Musgrove, who is still one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. 

Now let’s talk about the Guardians, Cardinals, and Orioles. They are very boring teams that have great fundamentals and do everything well. Each of these teams field well, put the ball in play well, have good bullpens, and most of all throw a starter out each and every game that gives them a chance to win. You have to constantly be on your best behavior when playing these teams. Plus, each of these teams have a tabloid, potentially magical World Series script waiting for them to complete. 

The Orioles were supposed to be one of the worst teams in baseball coming in, proven by them just having the first pick in the most recent amatuer draft. However, we are in late August and they are still in the Wild Card hunt. The Cardinals have three iconic players in Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina all having what we presume would be their “Last Dance” type season. Last but not least, the Guardians have the longest World Series winning drought of any team. That writes itself. 

Tier 3: The “Have to consider but ultimately not serious” teams sponsored by the Utah Jazz and Dallas Cowboys: Twins, White Sox, Brewers, Rays and Mariners 

These teams are good enough to respectfully acknowledge them in World Series talks, but don’t count on them making it. The Twins and Brewers seem to be different sides of the same coin. They have consistently been putting out a division winning, competitive team but both do not feature the elite talent to push them over the edge. Both teams have consistently been coming up short the last few seasons. The Rays are only two years removed from a pennant. They bolster great pitching and defense, but just do not have the hitting prowess necessary to make a run. The Mariners and White Sox flirted heavily with the 2nd tier, but ultimately both are too inexperienced to do anything serious. They have some serious talent, but the White Sox have not shown their true potential all year and the Mariners have no postseason experience to fall back on. 

My World Series Prediction for the 2022 MLB Season: Mets vs. Astros

Let’s start with the Astros, who in my opinion are the most complete team in baseball. A lot of people are writing them off considering they just really don’t want to see a team that was guilty of cheating win it all, but you have to acknowledge them. They are too good not to. The little tiny holes they had(lack of left handed relievers and offensive production from first base and catcher) were filled at the deadline with Will Smith, Trey Mancini, and Christian Vazquez respectively. They are getting a Cy Young season from 39 year old Justin Verlander who just so happens to be a year removed from Tommy John surgery . They are getting an MVP caliber season from Yordan Alvarez(the best hitter in baseball in my eyes). They have a deep lineup that has power and bat to ball skills with Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and red hot Alex Bregman. They have one of the deepest starting rotations AND bullpens. The most important ingredient to the Houston Astros? They have the most experience. They know what it takes! This is a nucleus that has made it to the ALCS every season since 2017. The Houston Astros are the modern day version of the 1990’s Braves. They have become the surest bet in baseball to be right in the mix. 

The Mets got the nod over the Dodgers and Braves because they have the luxury of throwing Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom out there in Games 1 and 2 of a series. The Mets have been an October tease for a few seasons now, but this year just feels different. The energy is high in the stands and in the dugout. They have shown plenty of resiliency over the course of the season with many comeback wins. Lindor and Alonso are big time bats that have produced time and time again in RBI situations this season. The only thing standing in the way of the Mets returning to their first World Series since 2015 would be injuries to Scherzer and/or deGrom and the shaky set up men blowing the game before Edwin Diaz can get the ball.